DEEP LEARNING BASED AN EFFICIENT HYBRID PREDICTION MODEL FOR COVID-19 CROSS-COUNTRY SPREAD AMONG E7 AND G7 COUNTRIES

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the death of many people around the world and has also caused economic problems for all countries in the world. In the literature, there are many studies to analyze and predict the spread of COVID-19 in cities and countries. However, there is no study to predict and analyze the cross-country spread in the world. In this study, a deep learning based hybrid model was developed to predict and analysis of COVID-19 cross-country spread and a case study was carried out for Emerging Seven (E7) and Group of Seven (G7) countries. It is aimed to reduce the workload of healthcare professionals and to make health plans by predicting the daily number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Developed model was tested extensively using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and R Squared (R2). The experimental results showed that the developed model was more successful to predict and analysis of COVID-19 cross-country spread in E7 and G7 countries than Linear Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The developed model has R2 value close to 0.9 in predicting the number of daily cases and deaths in the majority of E7 and G7 countries. © 2023 by the authors.

Public agencies tweeting the COVID-19 pandemic: cross-country comparison of must have and forgotten communication topics

IntroductionDespite the importance of national-level public health agencies in times of a pandemic, there is limited comparative understanding of their must-have and forgotten pandemic-related communication topics. MethodsTo fill this gap in the literature, this article presents an analysis of COVID-related communication topics by national-level health agencies in Italy, Sweden, and the United States using the IDEA (Internalization, Distribution, Explanation, Action) model on crisis message framing. The public health agencies included in the study are the Italian National Institute of Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanita;ISS), the Public Health Agency of Sweden (Folkhalsomyndigheten), and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the US. ResultsBased on these agencies' Twitter posts (n = 856) in the first 3 months of the pandemic, the article reveals a greater attention paid to action oriented (e.g., disease prevention) and explanatory messages (e.g., disease trends) than to distribution (e.g., transmission) and internalizing messages (e.g., risk factors) in all three countries. The study also highlights differences in terms of referrals to other communication channels and communication topics, especially in terms of these agencies' emphasis on individual risk factors (related to the risk of a person suffering from serious COVID-19-related health consequences) and social risk factors (related to the chance of an individual to become infected with COVID-19 because of the social context). DiscussionThe study's findings call for better incorporation of information that is directly relevant to the receivers (internalizing messages) by public health agencies.

Social media discussion on covid-19i on mental health in the US, UK, and india

Discovered in December 2019, Coronavirus (Covid-19) is an infectious disease that has spread rapidly around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared Covid-19 a pandemic in March 2020. The pandemic has increased the severity and amount of mental health problems, including depression, stress, and anxiety. This research uses real-life Covid-19 Tweets collected from March 2020 until October 2021. The objective is to analyze tweets from the US, UK, and India to discover Covid-19's impact on mental health in the three countries and identify influential users in each country when discussing this topic. The result shows that the major themes in the US were related to government and politics. Some dominant users in the US are news accounts and people who have occupations such as journalists, hosts, and presenters. The UK's theme focuses on relationships between friends and families, with doctors and medical workers as dominant users. India focuses on mental health and education, with dominant users including news-related accounts and some politicians. © 2022 Authors. All rights reserved.

Deep learning based hybrid prediction model for predicting the spread of COVID-19 in the world's most populous countries.

COVID-19 has a disease and health phenomenon and has sociological and economic adverse effects. Accurate prediction of the spread of the epidemic will help in the planning of health management and the development of economic and sociological action plans. In the literature, there are many studies to analyse and predict the spread of COVID-19 in cities and countries. However, there is no study to predict and analyse the cross-country spread in the world's most populous countries. In this study, it was aimed to predict the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. The motivation of this study is to reduce the workload of health workers, take preventive measures and optimize health processes by predicting the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. A hybrid deep learning model was developed to predict and analyse COVID-19 cross-country spread and a case study was carried out for the world's most populous countries. The developed model was tested extensively using RMSE, MAE and R2. The experimental results showed that the developed model was more successful in predicting and analysis of COVID-19 cross-country spread in the world's most populous countries than LR, RF, SVM, MLP, CNN, GRU, LSTM and base CNN-GRU. In the developed model, CNN performs convolution and pooling operations to extract spatial features from the input data. GRU provides learning of long-term and non-linear relationships inferred by CNN. The developed hybrid model was more successful than the other models compared, as it enabled the effective features of the CNN and GRU models to be used together. The prediction and analysis of the cross-country spread of COVID-19 in the world's most populated countries can be presented as a novelty of this study.

Navigating responsible bio-political citizenship: Cross-country comparison of stigma in Covid-19 illness narratives in Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA.

This paper aims to further understanding of discourses of responsible bio-political citizenship during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. This was an interview-based qualitative study comparing experiences of 103 people who were ill with Covid for the first time across 2020 in Japan, Germany, the USA and the UK. Comparative thematic analysis explored discussion of responsibility in relation to Covid illness, experiences of social fracture and stigma, and the strategies employed to resist or mitigate stigma. This comparative analysis highlighted significant similarities across countries. We identified three mysteries of Covid illness experiences that impacted the work of navigating biopolitical citizenship. First, the mystery of how people caught Covid. There was an inherent paradox of following guidance yet nonetheless falling ill. Disclosure of Covid to minimise onward transmission was held in tension with accusations of irresponsibility. Second, the mystery of onward transmission. Uncertainty about transmission placed participants in a liminal space of potentially having caused harm to others. Third, the mystery of how long illness should last. Uncertainty about ongoing infectiousness made social re-entry difficult, particularly in instances of persistent symptoms. We demonstrate the instability of certainty in the context of new and emerging forms of biopolitical citizenship. Guidance and emerging scientific evidence sought to demystify Covid through providing certainty that could guide responsible actions, but where citizens experienced paradoxes this had the potential to exacerbate stigma.

Determinants of customer loyalty to online food service delivery: evidence from Indonesia, Taiwan, and New Zealand

This study is dedicated to m-commerce and examines the key factors determining loyalty to online food delivery (OFD) services in Indonesia, Taiwan, and New Zealand, as these countries have faced varying degrees of pandemic severity. The data analysis using Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) shows that the quality of both food and e-service, satisfaction, perceived value, and trust are significant predictors of loyalty in all countries. Food quality drives consumer loyalty, contentment, and perceived value in Indonesia and Taiwan, but e-service quality is the main determinant in New Zealand. These differences can be attributed to the status quo of the OFD service market in the three countries pre-Covid, cultural factors, the pandemic severity, and consumer access to other distribution channels. Best practice recommendations for marketing managers associated with OFD are presented.

THE INFLUENCE OF FUNCTIONAL STATES ON THE NORMATIVE INDICATORS OF CROSS-COUNTRY RUNNING OF STUDENTS BEFORE AND AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Objective of the study was to assess the impact of functional states on the performance of normative indicators of cross-country running of students before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods and structure of the study. 42 subjects took part in the scientific work (gender-female, average age 19.5 years, health group-main). Group X-students who took the Applied Physical Education course in full-time before the start of the pandemic (duration of the course: 2015-2018);group Y-students who took the course "Applied Physical Education" in full-time and remote form during the pandemic (duration of the course: 2019-2022). To measure the level of fa-tigue, monotony, satiety and stress, the method "Differential diagnosis of conditions of reduced performance" (DORS) by A.B. Leonova and S.B. Velichkovskaya (modified). A comparative evaluation of the results of a 3000 m cross-country run was also carried out. Results and conclusions. The conditions of self-isolation, distance learning and quarantine measures during the pandemic had an impact on the physical and mental health of students who had an increased level of monotony, a lower result in cross-country running than in the group of students involved in the traditional mode of study before the pandemic. The results obtained give grounds to assume that the limitation of life activity leads to dysfunction of the motivational-volitional sphere, apathy, boredom, physical and mental fatigue of students and, accord-ingly, affects their results in long-distance running. The issue of maintaining health, both physical and psychological, in conditions of self-isolation is still relevant, and therefore there is an increasing need to develop and apply various types of monitoring the results of people's motor activity in various conditions of life. © 2023, Teoriya i praktika fizicheskoy kul'tury i sporta. All rights reserved.

Varieties of corona news: a cross-national study on the foundations of online misinformation production during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Misinformation in the media is produced by hard-to-gauge thought mechanisms employed by individuals or collectivities. In this paper, we shed light on what the country-specific factors of falsehood production in the context of COVID-19 Pandemic might be. Collecting our evidence from the largest misinformation dataset used in the COVID-19 misinformation literature with close to 11,000 pieces of falsehood, we explore patterns of misinformation production by employing a variety of methodological tools including algorithms for text similarity, clustering, network distances, and other statistical tools. Covering news produced in a span of more than 14 months, our paper also differentiates itself by its use of carefully controlled hand-labeling of topics of falsehood. Findings suggest that country-level factors do not provide the strongest support for predicting outcomes of falsehood, except for one phenomenon: in countries with serious press freedom problems and low human development, the mostly unknown authors of misinformation tend to focus on similar content. In addition, the intensity of discussion on animals, predictions and symptoms as part of fake news is the biggest differentiator between nations; whereas news on conspiracies, medical equipment and risk factors offer the least explanation to differentiate. Based on those findings, we discuss some distinct public health and communication strategies to dispel misinformation in countries with particular characteristics. We also emphasize that a global action plan against misinformation is needed given the highly globalized nature of the online media environment. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42001-022-00193-5.

Talking about inequities: A comparative analysis of COVID-19 narratives in the UK, US, and Brazil.

Disproportionate mortality and morbidity burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic and coinciding media coverage of public acts of violence perpetrated against people of color in 2020 precipitated reckonings with structural inequities in global, national, and local contexts. This cross-country comparative analysis aims to describe how people voice and make sense race, racism, and privilege in their experiences with COVID-19 infection in the United States, United Kingdom, and Brazil. Anchored by continuous reflection on our individual and collective positionality, we conducted an inductive comparative analysis conceptually situated in intersectionality and critical race theory. Countries used a shared qualitative methodology to collect and analyze 166 narratives of people with experience of COVID-19 infection from 2020 to 2023. We selected 19 cases that illustrate cross-national differences in peoples' acknowledgment and narration of structural privilege and disadvantage in their observations of COVID-19 in their countries and in their personal experiences. People in the US had the most fluency with voicing race directly. In Brazil, while some respondents (especially younger people) demonstrated high racial consciousness, others struggled to identify and talk about racial relationships. In the UK, people voiced racial identifications, though often within white norms of politeness and an accompanying sense of discomfort. The findings overall illustrate moments the interview becomes or does not become a space for voicing social categories and systemic underpinnings of difference in COVID-19 infections and healthcare experiences. We reflect on cross-country differences in historical and contemporary racialized discourse and elaborate on implications of focusing on voicing in qualitative research.

Impact of Human and Economic Development on Fake News Propensity During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Cross-Country Analysis

The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic augmented the propensity for fake news globally. Today, over 90% of the global population depends on the internet for information. However, there is an enormous difference in fake news propensity in different countries. Thus, one must understand what factors influence the propensity for fake news during the COVID-19 crisis. Leveraging prior literature on fake news, the authors theorize the relationship between human and economic development and fake news propensity within nations. They analyzed the proposed model on a dataset generated from 104 countries. The research finds that a level of human development did not affect a nation's fake news propensity, while a higher level of economic development curbed its fake news propensity. This research extends prior IS research on fake news at the macro level and aims to better inform governments and policymakers in designing future crisis-proof policies to curb fake news.

The World Economy's Development After the COVID-19 Crisis: Sustainability and Stability vs. Quick Digital Growth

This paper aims to model the cause-and-effect relationships between the world economy's digital development and sustainable living. A broad selection of developed and developing countries examines what the world economy would have looked like without the crisis in 2020. Drawing on whether the virus is swept off or merely reduced, the dataset contains a forecast of the world economy for 2022. Being aware of alternative scenarios can be helpful in a wide range of scientific studies. The practical implications of the results of the scenario analysis consist in them allowing for the assessment of opportunities to overcome the COVID-19 viral threat with the help of vaccination. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.

A cross-country comparison of health-related quality of life in the United States, Sweden, and Norway during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Limited studies have directly compared health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in different countries during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The objective of this study was to evaluate the HRQoL outcomes in the US, Sweden, and Norway during the first year under the pandemic. METHODS: In April 2020, during early phase of the pandemic, separately in the US, Sweden, and Norway, we surveyed 2,734, 1,003 and 1,020 respondents, then again in January 2021, we collected 2,252, 1,013 and 1,011 respondents. The survey was first developed in English and translated into Swedish and Norwegian. Selected variables were used for the current study. We collected respondents' HRQoL using the EQ-5D-5L. Respondents' background information included their sociodemographic data, medical history, and COVID-19 status. We reported the EQ-5D-5L utility, EQ-VAS, and the proportion of problems with each of the EQ-5D-5L health subdomains. Population quality-adjusted life year (QALY) changes based on EQ-5D-5L utility scores were also calculated. Outcomes were stratified by age. One-way ANOVA test was used to detect significant differences between countries and Student's t-tests were used to assess the differences between waves. RESULTS: Respectively for the US, Sweden, and Norway, mean EQ-5D-5L utilities were 0.822, 0.768, and 0.808 in April 2020 (p < 0.001); 0.823, 0.783, and 0.777 in January 2021 (p < 0.001); mean EQ-VAS scores were 0.746, 0.687, and 0.692 in April 2020 (p < 0.001), 0.764, 0.682, and 0.678 in January 2021 (p < 0.001). For both waves, EQ-5D-5L utilities and EQ-VAS scores in the US remained higher than both Sweden and Norway (p < 0.001). Norwegians reported considerably lowered HRQoL over time (p < 0.01). Self-reported problems with anxiety/depression were highest for the US and Sweden, while Norwegians reported most problems with pain/discomfort, followed by anxiety/depression. The population QALYs increased in the US and Sweden, but decreased in Norway. CONCLUSIONS: In the first year of the pandemic, a rebound in HRQoL was observed in the US, but not in Sweden or Norway. Mental health issues during the pandemic warrant a major public health concern across all 3 countries.

Mediating effect of resilience in the relationship between loneliness and life satisfaction during COVID-19: A cross-country study of Thai and Chinese college students.

This study investigated the compensating mediating mechanism of resilience in the relationship between loneliness and life satisfaction in Thai and Chinese college students during a risk period of coronavirus disease 2019 transmission. A total of 262 Thai and 247 Chinese college students were enrolled in the study between December 2020 and January 2021. A measurement model was constructed with the items of loneliness, resilience, and life satisfaction by using structural equation models. Subsequently, structural mediating models were constructed according to the valid items and a multigroup comparison was performed. The relationship between loneliness and life satisfaction differed significantly between Thai and Chinese college students as a result of the mediating effect of resilience. Resilience in Thai college students partly compensated for the negative influence of loneliness on life satisfaction, and resilience in Chinese college students compensated completely for the negative influence of loneliness on life satisfaction.

Emotional contagion as a trigger for moral disengagement: Their effects on workplace injuries

The purpose of this study was to empirically test the proposition that contagion of emotions triggers moral disengagement and subsequent increases in work-related injuries. Using emotional contagion and social cognitive theories, we tested the proposition that higher contagion of anger (i.e., a negative emotion that interferes with mental functioning and enables inappropriate behavior) would trigger moral justifications for safety violations, whereas higher contagion of joy (i.e., a positive emotion accompanied by an optimal operating condition and constructive activity) would prevent safety-related moral disengagement. In turn, moral disengagement was predicted to be related to higher rates of subsequent workplace injuries. Using a cross-country and multi-method (i.e., cross-lagged, cross-sectional) design, data from 503 employees in the U.S. (two-wave) and 538 employees in Italy (cross-sectional) supported the hypothesized mediation model. Specifically, both in the U.S. and Italy, emotional contagion of anger positively predicted moral disengagement, whereas emotional contagion of joy negatively predicted moral disengagement. Furthermore, moral disengagement positively predicted experienced injuries and partially mediated the relationship between contagion of joy/anger and injuries. These findings suggest that moral justifications of safety violations, and related injuries, may be prevented by exchanges of positive emotions (and triggered by exchanges of negative emotions) that employees absorb during social interactions at work. Theoretical and practical implications for organizational ethics are discussed in light of the globally increasing emotional pressure and concerns for a safe and psychologically healthy environment in today's workplace, particularly given the recent pandemic spread of Coronavirus disease (CoVid-19). (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

Financial distress and tax avoidance: the moderating effect of the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose: This paper examines whether financial distress is associated with tax avoidance and whether the COVID-19 pandemic moderates such association. Design/methodology/approach: The sample covers 38,958 firm-year observations from 32 countries during the period 2015–2020. Financial distress is measured using the ZSCORE by Altman (1968), while tax avoidance is based on the book-tax difference. Findings: Financially distressed firms exhibit low tax avoidance pre- and during the pandemic periods. The authors find higher tax avoidance during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period, but the pandemic enhances the negative relationship between financial distress and tax avoidance. Research limitations/implications: The study offers evidence on how financial distress drives firms to engage in more tax avoidance when firms globally encountered various levels of financial difficulty sparked by the economic challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. Practical implications: The findings provide insights to policymakers on the need to monitor and incentivise financially distressed firms, especially during economic challenges due to pandemic. Originality/value: This study adds to the limited, albeit important, evidence on the joint effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and financial distress on tax avoidance. © 2023, Akmalia Ariff, Wan Adibah Wan Ismail, Khairul Anuar Kamarudin and Mohd Taufik Mohd Suffian.

The Wealth of Nations and the First Wave of COVID-19 Diffusion

A large debate has risen about the hypothesis that "COVID-19 is a disease for the rich ones” suggesting that both its diffusion and mortality rates are somehow linked with economic wealth. In this study we observe a sample of 138 countries during the first wave contagion period, namely the 5 weeks between 24 March and 21 April 2020. Using different data sources, our estimates show that both the early infection and the mortality rates of COVID-19 are higher in wealthier countries, more precisely in countries with a higher GDP per capita. As an explanation of this finding, we also find that both mortality and infection rates increase with a higher share of elderly population and with the international flows of imported goods or tourists. However, the death rate decreases in countries with higher endowments of health facilities. We also demonstrate that these results are robust to simultaneity, unobserved heterogeneity, the possible poor quality of the data on COVID-19 deaths, and the extension of the time frame.

Relative deprivation, inequality and the Covid-19 pandemic.

There is a growing concern that inequalities are hindering health outcomes. This paper's primary objective is to investigate the role of relative deprivation and inequality in explaining the daily spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we use secondary cross-sectional data across 119 (developed and developing) countries from January 2020 - to April 2021. For the empirical analysis, we use a recent dynamic panel data modelling approach that allows us to identify the role of time-invariant variables such as degree of globalisation, political freedom and income inequality on the dynamics of the pandemic and fatality rates across countries. We find that new cases per million and fatality rates are highly persistent processes. After controlling for time-varying mobility statistics from the Google mobility database and region-specific dummy variables, the two significant factors that explain the severity of Covid-19 spread in a country are per-capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Yitzhaki's relative income deprivation index. Lagged value of new cases per million significantly explains cross-country variations in the daily case fatality rates. A higher proportion of the older population and pollution increased fatality rates while better medical infrastructure reduced it.

Covid-19 and life satisfaction across Europe

We analyse the importance of the spread of Covid-19 and related policy measures for individual life satisfaction in a sample of 15 European countries. We find that life satisfaction is negatively correlated with the spread of Covid-19 in Northern Europe, whereas this correlation is insignificant in Southern and Western Europe. This result is mitigated by the stringency of policy measures in the North. By contrast, the stringency of policy measures is negatively correlated with life satisfaction in the West. These results indicate that while policy measures can reassure the population and increase life satisfaction, beyond a certain threshold these policy measures may decrease life satisfaction. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Identifying age- and sex-specific COVID-19 mortality trends over time in six countries.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic is characterized by successive waves that each developed differently over time and through space. We aim to provide an in-depth analysis of the evolution of COVID-19 mortality during 2020 and 2021 in a selection of countries. METHODS: We focus on five European countries and the United States. Using standardized and age-specific mortality rates, we address variations in COVID-19 mortality within and between countries, and demographic characteristics and seasonality patterns. RESULTS: Our results highlight periods of acceleration and deceleration in the pace of COVID-19 mortality, with substantial differences across countries. Periods of stabilization were identified during summer (especially in 2020) among the European countries analyzed but not in the United States. The latter stands out as the study population with the highest COVID-19 mortality at young ages. In general, COVID-19 mortality is highest at old ages, particularly during winter. Compared with women, men have higher COVID-19 mortality rates at most ages and in most seasons. CONCLUSION: There is seasonality in COVID-19 mortality for both sexes at all ages, characterized by higher rates during winter. In 2021, the highest COVID-19 mortality rates continued to be observed at ages 75+, despite vaccinations having targeted those ages specifically.

The effect of utilitarian and hedonic motivations on mobile shopping outcomes. A cross‐cultural analysis

Mobile devices are ubiquitous in the lives of modern consumers, who use them for information‐seeking and purchasing activities, fostering the emergence of m‐commerce. This trend has been exacerbated by the COVID‐19 pandemic, which has boosted m‐commerce growth in both developed and developing countries. Hence, there is a need for cross‐cultural research concerning the factors affecting behavioural intentions. Drawing upon the hedonic information systems model, we measure the impact of utilitarian factors on satisfaction, repurchase intention, and eWOM through the mediation of enjoyment across two countries characterized by different stages of m‐commerce readiness and culture: China and Italy. Findings suggest that the impact of utilitarian factors on satisfaction is stronger among Italian users than Chinese users. On the contrary, for Chinese users, who use their mobile phones as a primary device to shop online, the mediation effect of enjoyment on satisfaction and eWOM is stronger. With this study, we contribute to cross‐cultural research in m‐commerce and provide guidelines to mobile retailers operating in diverse international markets.